The first noteworthy event of the offseason for non-playoff teams is here: the 2021 NHL Draft Lottery. Tonight, the almighty ping pong balls will decide the first two picks of the 2021 NHL Draft. The Philadelphia Flyers don’t have great odds to land one of the top two picks, but stranger things have happened.
Since 2016, the NHL draft lottery used three drawings to determine the top three picks. However, this year the lottery will be reduced from three drawings to two.
The 2021 NHL Draft Lottery will consist of two drawings: the first lottery Draw will determine the club selecting first overall, the second lottery Draw will determine the club selecting second overall.
2021 NHL Draft Lottery odds
Here are the odds for the first drawing for the first pick in the 2021 NHL Draft:
Seed Team Odds
1 Buffalo Sabres 16.6%
2 Anaheim Ducks 12.1%
3 Seattle Kraken * 10.3%
4 New Jersey Devils 10.3%
5 Columbus Blue Jackets 8.5%
6 Detroit Red Wings 7.6%
7 San Jose Sharks 6.7%
8 Los Angeles Kings 5.8%
9 Vancouver Canucks 5.4%
10 Ottawa Senators 4.5%
11 Arizona Coyotes ** 3.1%
12 Chicago Blackhawks 2.7%
13 Calgary Flames 2.2%
14 Philadelphia Flyers 1.8%
15 Dallas Stars 1.4%
16 New York Rangers 1.0%
The Flyers have a 1.8% chance in the first drawing and a 2.0% chance in the second drawing.
However, if the Arizona Coyotes win either of the first two drawings, a replacement drawing will take place. They lost their 2021 first-round and second-round picks as punishment for violating combine testing policy.
Here are the full odds for the 2021 NHL Draft Lottery, via Tankathon:
Flyers’ lottery scenarios
In all likelihood, the Flyers will end up with the 13th pick this year with Arizona’s forfeiture. If they do, it’ll be their first 13th overall pick in franchise history (if they choose to use it, that is –– but that’s a different story).
However, there is a very slim chance that they move up to the first (1.8%) or second (2.0%) overall pick. There is a slightly higher chance of them moving down to pick No. 14 if the Dallas Stars or New York Rangers win either drawing. Finally, there is a minuscule chance of them moving down to pick No. 15 if the Stars and Rangers win both of the drawings.
We all remember in 2017 when the Flyers moved up from No. 13 to No. 2 to select Nolan Patrick. Patrick hasn’t panned out, but it was an exciting time for the franchise.
If the Flyers do move down to the 14th slot, it’ll be the third time in the last four years that they draft 14th overall. They selected Cam York with the 14th pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, and Joel Farabee with St. Louis’ pick at 14 overall in the 2018 NHL Draft.
The 2021 NHL Draft lottery will take place tonight at the NHL Networks studio in Secaucus, N.J.
The 2021 NHL Draft will be held virtually on July 23rd and 24th.
Photo: Heather Barry Images