Flyers hoping for super lottery luck to land Bedard

Representatives from 11 teams will walk into the NHL Network’s Secaucus, N.J., studios tonight, fingers crossed, summoning any manner of luck they believe in.

Working overtime on prayers and superstitions, too.

Each team has one goal — to win the draft lottery and claim the Powerball of all hockey prizes, Connor Bedard, a 17-year-old center from the Regina Pats. Bedard is the anointed Next Great Thing, on par with Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid.

If that sounds like unreal expectations for a 17-year-old, you’re right. But he’s reportedly that good. He scored 143 points in 57 games with the Pats. The lottery begins at 8 p.m. and will be shown on ESPN and ESPN+.

Flyers odds

The Flyers have a 6.5 percent chance of winning the top pick in the lottery. OK, not a great chance but a puncher’s chance.

Based on their record, the Flyers would draft in the seventh spot. But lotteries are about long odds, good luck and dreams coming true.

The Flyers can only draft 1, 2, 3, 7, 8 or 9. According to Tankathon.com, the Flyers have a 6.7 percent chance of moving to the No. 2 spot; a 0.2 percent chance of picking third; a 44.4 percent chance of staying in seventh; a 36.5 percent chance of dropping to eighth; and a 5.6 percent chance of dropping to ninth.

There will be three lotteries tonight — one for the top pick, one for the second pick and one for the rest of the draft order. The NHL changed its lottery system in 2022. Only the bottom 11 teams are eligible for the top pick. Teams can jump only 10 spots.

If a team with the 12th to 16th worst record wins the lottery, that team would move up 10 spots and the Ducks, the team with the worse record, would get the top pick.

This is the first draft since 2015, when the Oilers chose McDavid, when the top pick is expected to be franchise-changing. 

Bedard will immediately transform the trajectory and fortunes of the lottery-winning franchise. Imagine the Flyers’ mindset, going from a team out of the playoffs four of the last five seasons to having not just the hope but the expectancy of a franchise renaissance.

Scouting report

Here is Bedard’s scouting report from NHL Central Scouting:

“Bedard has the elite skills and attributes that elite NHL players have, and it’s the precision in which he reads the play, is always in the right place and how he executes and capitalizes on plays,” Central Scouting vice president Dan Marr told NHL.com.

“What places him in that Connor McDavid-special category is his natural presence of mind and instincts that allow him to channel all these attributes to dominate when the opportunity is there and when it’s needed most by his team.”

The No. 2 pick also is expected to be an impact player. University of Michigan freshman forward Adam Fantilli is the likely second pick. Fantilli won the Hobey Baker Award this season as college hockey’s top player.

The draft will be held on June 28-29 in Nashville.

The Flyers have had mixed luck in recent lotteries. In 2007, they had the best odds to land the top pick at 25 percent. Chicago, the fifth-worst team, only had an 8.2 percent chance to win the lottery. The Blackhawks won anyway and drafted Patrick Kane, a likely future Hall of Famer.

The Flyers fell to No. 2 and drafted James van Riemsdyk, a solid player but no Patrick Kane.

In 2017, the Flyers incredibly moved from 13th to second in the lottery. They only had a 2.4 percent chance to land second.

That good luck turned sour when their pick, Nolan Patrick, turned out to be a bust. Patrick played three seasons in Philly and scored 30 goals before being traded to Vegas.

A reasonable expectation from a No. 2 overall pick is 25-30 goals a season, not 30 goals over three seasons.

The Flyers also will have two third-round picks, two fourth-round picks, one fifth-round pick, two sixth-round picks and one seventh-round pick. The Flyers traded their second-round pick to the Sabres for defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen.

The odds

Here are the 16 teams in tonight’s lottery, with odds of landing the No. 1 pick (only the top 11 are eligible for the top pick):

1. Ducks, 18.5 percent
2. Blue Jackets, 13.5
3. Blackhawks, 11.5
4. Sharks, 9.5
5. Canadiens, 8.5
6. Coyotes, 7.5
7. Flyers, 6.5
8. Capitals, 6.0
9. Red Wings, 5.0
10. Blues, 3.5
11. Canucks, 3.0
12. Senators, 2.5
13. Sabres, 2.0
14. Penguins, 1.5
15. Predators, 0.5
16. Flames, 0.5

And for Flyers fans, let the prayers begin. Four-leaf clovers are welcomed.