Philadelphia Flyers
3 Big Obstacles for the Flyers in their Final 25-Game Stretch
Yesterday, I wrote three reasons to pay attention to the rest of the Flyers season. With 25 games remaining, there is plenty of reason to tune in and pay attention to the Flyers as they play the final 25-game stretch. I was the little angel on your shoulder, sharing the happy and positive aspects of the rest of the season.
A refreshed Matvei Michkov, a prove-it chance for Sam Ersson, and a good look at the Flyers’ youth are all good reasons to pay attention to the Flyers.
Now, it’s time to play the devil on your other shoulder. With the postseason nearly out of sight, here are 3 obstacles in the Flyers’ way this season.
Could the Flyers Bottom Out?
The Flyers were not expected to be good this season. However, their expectation-exceeding play from 2023/24 set the bar slightly higher than it should have been for the 2024/25 season. As a team, the Flyers have been trending down since the holiday break ended. They have a record of 9-10-3 since December 28th. In their last 10 games before the break, the Flyers are 3-6-1.
The Flyers’ roster will likely become thinner once the trade deadline passes, with veteran players like Scott Laughton and Rasmus Ristolainen generating interest. If the Flyers decide to move on from those vets, I expect the standard of play to grow worse in Philly.
Let’s be honest: losing hockey is not entertaining. Who willingly would want to watch their team bottom out? Of course, losing hockey would grow pessimism in Philly. They’re not in the playoff hunt; the bottom six are primarily made up of AHL players. A bottom-out may be hard to avoid, given what the roster could look like in March or even sooner.
Backup Goaltending
If you were to believe that the Flyers postseason hunt is still alive, the backup goaltender situation is undoubtedly a cause for doubt.
Ivan Fedotov took the No.2 goalie job away from Aleksei Kolosov early in the new year, but it is not like that was a high bar. Fedotov and Kolosov are average over three goals against and have a save percentage below .880. Among goaltenders with a minimum of 15 games played, both Flyers’ backups are in the bottom four in save percentage (Kolosov 2nd worst, Fedotov 4th worst). Fedotov (7th worst) and Kolosov (4th worst) are in the bottom 10 in goals against average.
The backup goaltending position in Philly alone is an obstacle in itself, but if you’re looking to make a run this season, this will likely get in their way.
Sam Ersson cannot play all 25 games left this season. Hopefully, he will get a good chunk of that final stretch, but giving him 25 games is very unrealistic. That would require the backup goalies to win a game, which is rare this season. Fedotov’s last win came on November 29th against the Rangers. Kolosov’s previous win came on December 12th against the Red Wings. The pair of backups have a combined eight wins this season. That is certainly a big obstacle for the Flyers.
What if they Stay in the Mushy Middle?
The Flyers will have quite the mountain to climb if they want a chance to make the playoffs. I am talking about a massive mountain. Think about last season. They were trending towards a high-end draft pick. They then outplayed their expectations and had a chance to make the playoffs. Philly was eliminated on the last day of the season. In a season where getting a top-talent prospect to add to the prospect pool was important for the rebuild, the Flyers played themselves out of a good draft position and were set to pick 12th (traded to 13th).
That is not a knock on Jett Luchanko, who has certainly outplayed my expectations so far. The point is that if the Flyers don’t choose their direction, they could put themselves out of contention for a top prospect and push themselves to another mid-round draft pick. The Flyers could opt to keep one of Laughton and Ristolainen, or even both, and keep their level of play right in that mushy middle.
The Flyers’ position when the 4 Nations break started gives them the best odds for the sixth overall pick in the upcoming draft. However, they are just two points away from being ninth and three points away from being outside the top 10. Granted, teams behind them would have to lose games, but given how bad the mushy middle is, that does not seem like a stretch.
While this may not be a cause for pessimism now, another mid-first-round draft selection could be a big obstacle in the long-term vision of the rebuild.
I went into this season optimistic that the “rebuild” was trending positively, especially with Michkov added. I was hoping for at least about the same point total or a little higher, even with no playoffs. You want to see a rebuilding team trending upward. But the opposite has happened. We’ve gotten our answer on Frost and Farabee, and I haven’t seen other young players – Tippett, York, Brink, Zamula, even Foerster – make significant gains in their play. (Michkov has not disappointed even though he has faded some through the long season). Their players, Michkov excluded, have a certain ceiling and it’s not going to be high enough.
At this point, moves have to be made to put the rebuild into high gear. Treading water on the cusp of a playoff spot in the middle to bottom third of the league will not advance things, and the fans will soon reject continual mediocrity, even if it’s labeled “rebuild”. Mid-round picks like Luchanko will not significantly advance things.
Dumping Farabee’s and Frost’s salaries was a good start. The team has numerous first and second round picks in this draft and aging players like Laughton and Risto that could be packaged for younger, established players or close prospects. Dumped salary and the cap rising significantly opens the door for adding better players through trades and free agency.
DB should get very busy now to the deadline and over the summer, because if we don’t see the team begin to trend upward significantly soon, interest in a perpetually mediocre team will fade quickly.
Check out the Devils record over the last 7’8 years…roller-coaster, with plenty of low lights, until this season. And they were helped with two number one picks in Nico.H and Jack H.
Rebuilds seem to be the furthest removed from a linear. progression.
Hopefully Danny makes the necessary trades and is able to also draft in the top ten.
Trades need to be done. Supposedly seven teams are interested in Laughton. Great, have a bidding war and get the best deal on the table. Two, Risto has to go, hopefully without salary retention. Three, Hathaway, Deslauriers and possibly even York. The first four are gritty players that are perfect for playoff teams looking for team players capable of sacrificing themselves on a daily basis.
They probably won’t move York, but he has plateaued and that’s not good.
Tough to have to play three d-menr 5’11” and under on a daily basis ..York, Drysdale and Andrae. Big forwards will eventually wear them down come March/April…that is if they are healthy by the end of the season.
Jett Luchanko’s Guelph Storm, sits in last place in the Western Conference of the OHL with 17 games left thru March 22nd. Once they are officially eliminated from the OHL play-offs, Flyers should go ahead bring in Luchanko…..or maybe have him suit up for the AHL Phantoms stretch drive to their play-offs, that is, if the Storm are authorized to release him from the NHL/Junior agreement. Not sure that can be done…but it would serve him well to play in the AHL: for awhile especially if they can get into the last play-off spot.
Do AHL games count towards the 10 games that burn a year off his ELC or is just NHL games? Also would he be eligible for AHL playoffs if the Phantoms made the playoffs?
Do not know….hoping someone would know–maybe Wiliam James of this site……junior players by agreement cannot go to the AHL before meeting certain seniority requirements ( I think age 20, not sure) at the junior level….but as for the NHL they are allowed, after that 9th game.
The NHL team has to keep them on their roster and burn that ELC like you said, but cannot be sent down to the AHL level.
To my knowledge, if he were to report straight to the AHL it would not count towards his “9 games” to burn a year off his ELC. You can play in the AHL if you’re 18 years old and up.
I looked it up…..The NHL/CHL Transfer Agreement….drafted junior players can only play in the NHL, not the AHL, well not until they reach 20 years old…..there is a move now to amend that agreement and let 19-year old juniors the opportunity to play in the AHL…that is according to THN’s Ryan Kennedy, editor.
Jett is still 18, he won’t turn 19 until August. I did some more reading myself as well, I could not find anything that would allow Jett to play in the AHL…
He can play in the AHL, once Guelph us eliminated (they probably won’t make the playoffs)
JettLu does not have the age yet to be eligible for the AHL….plus he only has three season in the OHL (22-23, 23-24, 24-25), if he had four complete OHL seasons there may have been a possibility of a release though he would not turn 20 (Aug 2026) until after the season was completed
OHL, or any player that is in the Canadian Hockey League cannot play in the AHL. NHL or back to the CHL (Major Junior in Canada)… they do get 9games. NHL Team has to decide by 9games or it burns 1year of entry level contract. Once their Junior team is eliminated from the playoffs, AHL could be a possibility.