Flyers Forecast: Predicting the Rest of the Year

After Saturday’s 6-3 win over the Edmonton Oilers, the Flyers now sit at 25-26-7  with 57 points in the standings. They are currently 7th in the Metropolitan Division, 14th in the Eastern Conference, and 24th in the league. The Flyers are five points out of the second wild-card spot in the East, yet if the season ended today, the Flyers would have the best odds at the No. 7-overall draft selection. In fact, the Flyers are just three points away from the Kraken, who have the best odds for the No. 5-overall pick, and six points back of Buffalo, which has the best odds for No. 4.

It is an odd spot to be in, but it proves that the NHL is a .500 league.

The upcoming stretch of games is important for the Flyers. Philadelphia has five games remaining before the trade deadline: Pittsburgh (back-to-back, home and away), Winnipeg (road), Calgary (home), and Winnipeg (home). After the home-and-home with the Penguins, the Flyers will take on teams that sit above them in the standings.

A decision about the Flyers’ fate at the deadline is coming. Here is my forecast of how things will shake out.

Flyers go 1-3-1 Over their Next Five Games

After the way the Flyers played on Saturday, it is hard to see a loss. However, a challenging set of games is coming for the Flyers, and I think it will get the best of them.

To be specific, I think the Flyers split the home-and-home with Pittsburgh. These are two cross-state rivals who always play each other tough, even when one team is terrible, and the other is dominant, or, in this season’s case, both teams are not good. A split makes sense to me. The Flyers probably get the one at home, building off Saturday’s momentum, and that momentum comes crumbling on the road.

The Flyers then head to Winnipeg to take on the best team in the West on the road, which is no small task. It’s hard to get momentum back in a game like that. After, the Flyers come home to host the Calgary Flames, which is the game I predict will be an overtime loss; it very well could end in regulation, though. It feels like a game that will be close, but ultimately, I think the Flames will head out of Philly with the win.

The last game for the Flyers before the March 7th trade deadline is Winnipeg, again, but this time at home. The Flyers will have a better shot at a win on their own ice, but I just don’t see that happening.

In my prediction, the Flyers would be 26-29-8 and falling closer and closer to a better draft selection. That would lead to the next part of my forecast.

Flyers Remain Cautious but Still Trade a Vet (or two)

The deadline plan should be simple: continue to collect assets for the (near) future and look to turn things around next season.

To implement that plan, the Flyers need to clear some cap space and recoup draft compensation or prospects in return for the coveted veterans. By trading Rasmus Ristolainen, they could kill two birds with one stone.

A Ristolainen trade would be the best case for the Flyers as they look towards the future. First, it gets $10.2 million off the books over the next two seasons. Ristolainen carries a cap hit of $5.1 million each of the next two seasons; a move could make sense with young right-shot defensemen in the Flyers pipeline (Grans, Bonk, Gill, etc.).

The trade market for right-shot defensemen is thin, and Ristolainen surely sits near the top. The Flyers will undoubtedly get a haul if they decide to move off the Finnish defenseman. Not retaining any of his remaining money should be the top priority for the Flyers unless the return is just too good to pass up.

I still think the Flyers ship Ristolainen to a Western Conference contender, but I would not count out Eastern Conference teams like Detroit or Toronto.

Laughton Decision: Too Close to Call

I still see Scott Laughton, the Flyers’ other vet who could be on the move, as a less likely player to get moved. Laughton means a lot to the organization, which drives up Philly’s asking price. I am unsure if a team will truly match what Briere is asking for Laughton, so it comes down to how close the offer is and whether it is worth moving Laughton for.

If I had to make a snap judgment call, I would say Laughton stays in Philly. I do not see a team offering a first-round pick or a package equivalent or close to that. However, teams will get desperate, which may drive his value up around the league. I will say this, though. At the beginning of the year, I would have said the odds of trading Laughton were 20/80, maybe even 10/90. As things stand now, I lean towards 35/65 on Laughton getting dealt.

It will certainly be close, and I don’t doubt the Flyers will receive calls on Laughton until the deadline. Briere has made a tough trade before and could do it again. It just all seems too hard to tell at this point.

The Last 19 Games: A Tough Road for the Flyers

With my prediction of being 26-29-8 at the deadline and moving on from Ristolainen and maybe even Laughton, I don’t see the pastures getting greener in Philly. The deadline does fall in the middle of a seven-game homestand for the Flyers, with five straight home games after the deadline.

Of those five games, only one opponent, the Seattle Kraken, is not currently in possession of a playoff spot or just outside. A slate surely to be full of deadline buyers, with what will likely be a worse Flyers team, does not seem like a recipe for success. The homestand is followed by a five-game road trip, where only one team is not in the top three of their respective divisions. That lone team is the Chicago Blackhawks. March is not an easy month for the Flyers. Their final nine games are a bit easier, but four of them are against teams fighting for a playoff spot.

That tough stretch after the deadline will be killer for the Flyers. I see a record around 4-8-1 in March after the deadline, knowing the Flyers will probably steal a game somewhere.

When the calendar flips to April, I see the teams in the hunt, like the Rangers, Islanders, and Blue Jackets, along with the Senators, who are in the playoffs, as teams that won’t make it easy for the Flyers. The other two April opponents are the Canadians and the Sabres, which are games that could be won. They only have two home games in April. I think 2-3-1 is a fair assessment of how a depleted Flyers team could round out the April slate.

That said, I predict the Flyers will go 6-11-2 in their final 19 games, making their season record 32-40-10.

Where Would that Put the Flyers?

There is no catching the Sharks, Predators, and Blackhawks for the best odds at a top-three pick. If you are holding out hope, you will need some lottery help. Even the Sabres (51 points) at No. 4 seems hard to reach.

However, a late-season skid could put Philadelphia somewhere around the top-five area without ruling out catching the Sabres for the best odds at No. 4.

Disclaimer: This is Simply a Prediction

Hockey is a funny sport. Anything can happen.

Looking at the calendar and the tough decisions the Flyers have to make sooner rather than later, I don’t see the season-ending well for Philadelphia. While that is what I believe, hockey is a crazy game, and a team can get hot at any given time and completely change the season.

That said, I predict the Flyers will commit to next season by cutting their losses this season. If you have a prediction, feel free to share it in the comments.