Predicting the Flyers RFA Contracts

The Philadelphia Flyers will have some decisions to make this offseason with four restricted free agents in need of a new contract.

Cam York, Tyson Foerster, Noah Cates, and Jakob Pelletier will be RFAs when July 1st hits. The Flyers will be able to negotiate with all four before other teams can offer sheet to each player.

With the rising salary cap, the Flyers will have more wiggle room when it comes to offering contracts. What will the contracts look like for each Flyers’ RFA?

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Cam York, LD, 2028 UFA

Cam York is the most interesting case to me. I really see two options for his next contract. The first being a long-term contract, taking him well past his UFA year. The second option would be for York to bet on himself and take one last bridge deal ending before the 2028 offseason when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

The Flyers would undoubtedly prefer to avoid unrestricted free agency for York’s next contract. That said, I expect the term to be either two years or six seasons or more. A two-year deal would bring York to his final year as a restricted free agent. Given the regression this season, I think the Flyers will lean towards a bridge deal to see if York can pick up his play before committing to a long-term deal.

There is too much risk for both sides to agree on a long-term deal now. For the Flyers, they risk no real improvement from York, and they become stuck with a bad contract. If York gets the long-term deal based on his current play, he could be leaving a ton of cash on the table with the rising cap, along with his possible improvement. Giving a bridge deal to a 24-year-old defenseman is not ideal, but in York’s case, it might just be.

York will likely want a salary similar to Travis Sanheim’s $6.25 million AAV. If they had made this deal in the offseason, I can see York getting those numbers. However, the step back he has taken this season will likely put him in the $5-6 million AAV range. He’ll be able to negotiate higher, but ultimately, I believe the Flyers will get York locked up just over $5 million with the promise of earning his payday in the future.

Projected Contract: Two years, $10.5 million, $5.25 AAV

Tyson Foerster, LW/RW, 2029 UFA

Tyson Foerster was poised to get a big payday this offseason, but that was before the year began. Foerster had high expectations for this season, which seemed rather disappointing as the year went on. However, that changed as the season came to a close. Foerster embraced the coaching change and has become a completely different player on offense, surging to a 25-goal season.

Now, the Flyers have an interesting decision to make. Foerster was seemingly en route to another short-term, low-salary bridge deal until the last week or so of the season. All of a sudden, Foerster seems like he has the potential to be a lethal scorer.

The question now becomes, do the Flyers give him a short-term bridge deal with a relatively low cap hit? Or do they take a risk and lock Foerster up at a salary that seems high now, but could be a steal down the road?

Dylan Cozens’ first RFA contract gave him a $7.1 million cap hit for seven years. Buffalo took a gamble on Cozens and ended up trading him to Ottawa. While the two players were on a similar track, I don’t think Foerster gets offered anything more than $6 million a year, on this contract, of course.

Foerster expressed his interest in being with the Flyers long-term, but also showed a willingness to do what the team wants. He wants to be a Flyer and will likely be content with whatever the team offers, as long as AAV is there.

That said, a three-year deal would bring Foerster to one last RFA contract before he becomes a UFA in 2029. While I would love to see something like five years, $25 million, I don’t see that happening here. Instead, I think the Flyers and Foerster opt for a three-year deal, giving Foerster a chance to earn his big-time contract before he hits the open market.

Projected Contract: Three years, $15 million, $5 million AAV

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Noah Cates, C, 2026 UFA

This will be Noah Cates’ last RFA contract. He becomes a UFA in the 2026 offseason, so this is the last chance the Flyers will have to lock him down before he can hit the open market. Cates has had an amazing season, far beyond expectations. Especially considering he began the year as a healthy scratch.

Cates is a 200-foot center; his offense will not get him paid. Rather, it is his ability to play in all areas of the ice. Players like Cates won’t rake in a lucrative contract, so it’s rare to see long-term deals. However, Cates may be an exception. He has expressed his interest in a long-term deal with the Flyers, and I believe the Flyers will give him the term he is looking for.

Cates has proven this season that he can be a viable middle-six center. He can even play on the wing if need be and has played top-line minutes this season, matching up against opposing top lines. Cates will be a contributor on this team when it becomes competitive again. For that reason, I believe the Flyers will give him something around five years.

Regarding salary, I think something around $4 million is fair for Cates. I currently project him to get a little less, but I would not rule anything out. With the expected cap jump, it can be tricky projecting middle-six contracts. The Flyers will act with caution, trying to allow themselves some cap flexibility moving forward. For this offseason’s purposes, keeping Cates’ hit as low as possible will be ideal. I believe the two sides will be able to meet in the middle for a five-year deal with an AAV of just under $4 million.

Projected Contract: Five years, $17.5 million, $3.5 million AAV

Jakob Pelletier, LW, 2028 UFA

Jakob Pelletier came to Philadelphia in the Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee trade. He had been having an up-and-down season in Calgary, quite literally. Pelletier was waived at one point in the season, before coming back to the Flames and turning things back around.

He was eventually traded to the Flyers and had virtually a month off from hockey due to visa issues and the 4 Nations break, which stunted his progress. Pelletier seemed to regress once he arrived in Philadelphia. However, an increase in playing time along with a move to a more scoring-inclined line has allowed Pelletier the chance to catch his groove in Philly, which he has.

Pelletier has certainly played his way into a spot with the Flyers next season. However, given the risk that a longer contract has, I think the Flyers will offer Pelletier a two-year contract with a relatively low cap hit. He has RFA status until the 2028 offseason, so you’ll have another chance to give him a contract offer before he truly hits the open market. A relatively low-risk, high-reward contract would be the right move.

Give him a two-year prove-it deal, and see if he fits in the long-term plan.

Projected Contract: Two years, $3 million, $1.5 million AAV

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