Calder Trophy Watch: An Update on Michkov’s Chances

As the Flyers enter their final 10-game stretch of the season, the Calder Trophy race is beginning to take its final shape. Where does that leave Matvei Michkov?

The season began with the expectation that it’d be a two-man race between Michkov and San Jose Sharks’ rookie and 2024 No. 1-overall pick Macklin Celebrini. That two-man race turned into four, with both Canadiens rookie defenseman Lane Hutson and Flames goaltender Dustin Wolf each making strong cases for the trophy.

There can only be three finalists, meaning one deserving candidate will be left off the finalists list.

I hate to say it, but if the season ended today, I think Michkov is that odd man out.

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Will Michkov Be Left Out as a Calder Trophy Finalist?

At this point, I would have to say that Dustin Wolf, Macklin Celebrini, and Lane Hutson would be the three finalists if the season ended today. Of course, that is not my true opinion, as I feel Michkov should be there over Hutson, which I will dive into later.

However, basic stats would put the three previously mentioned ahead of Michkov. Let’s look and each of their cases to win.

Dustin Wolf is leading what was supposed to be a rebuilding Calgary Flames team to a playoff spot this year. Wolf is top-10 in the NHL with his .911 save percentage. His 2.63 goals-against-average puts him at No. 18 amongst NHL goalies that have played 25 or more games this season. While his GAA may not be top-10, his value to his team speaks for itself. He is leading his team to the playoffs, which is something that only Hutson can say–but can he really say HE is leading his team to that point?

Macklin Celebrini has been everything as advertised. In 58 games, he has 21 goals and 31 assists for 52 points. The Sharks are trending toward the No. 1-overall pick for the second straight season, but Celebrini has been a bright spot in a relatively dark season. He can do it all.

With Lane Hutson, he has 53 points in 69 games played. The defenseman has five goals and 48 assists this season, with one goal and 22 assists coming on the power play. Hutson has certainly been a shock, but it was always known that he is a talented player. The big knock on Hutson: he has a rating of -11. As a defenseman, it is not that great–at least for a Calder Trophy candidate. However, his numbers are certainly impressive, which is why I think he’d be a finalist if the season ended today.

Read More: Despite the Big Night, Michkov is Focused on the Future

Can Michkov Get Back in the Race?

There is still plenty of time for Michkov to climb back into the Calder Trophy Race. The Flyers’ prized rookie has 50 points in 70 games played, with 20 goals and 30 assists. He came out of the 4 Nations break blazing, then cooled off, but has picked things up again recently.

Michkov sits just three points back of Hutson for the lead in rookie points. He is two points behind Celebrini for the most among forwards. It’s also worth noting that despite playing 12 fewer games, Celebrini still has about 5:25 more in on-ice time.

Since being paired with Travis Konecny on a line, Michkov has seen his production pick back up. With 10 games left, there is still plenty of time for Michkov to jump back into the race. However, the next few games will be crucial for Michkov and his Calder Trophy hopes.

With that said, personally, I think he does crawl back into the race.

Who Will Be the Final Three?

I’ll start by saying I believe that two of the finalists will be Michkov and Celebrini. The third, well that depends on a few things.

The way things are going now, that third spot, and quite frankly, the winner of the Calder Trophy should be Dustin Wolf. If the Flames can grab that final playoff spot, that means Wolf played his best in a meaningful stretch. That alone should win him the award. However, that could be his poison as well.

If his flame burns out (ha, see what I did there), and Calgary misses the playoffs, maybe that final spot should go to Hutson.

There is a doomsday scenario in which Calgary and Montreal both make the playoffs. If Huston continues to impact his team during this final stretch like he has, you could see one of Michkov or Celebrini fall out of the running.

However, I think Huston being a defenseman who is a defensive liability should make him the odd man out.

There is still a lot of hockey left to play. The Calder Trophy race is far from over. Heck, it’s too close to even determine the finalists.

Michkov can still make his case to win the trophy. Will he be the Flyers’ first-ever Calder Trophy winner?

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