One Massive Offer Sheet Could Finish Flyers’ Rebuild

The 2024 NHL offseason has slowed substantially in recent days, but that doesn’t mean the Philadelphia Flyers should relent in their endless pursuit of a long-term No. 1 center. In fact, there’s one sitting right there for the Flyers to have. That’s Quinton Byfield, an unsigned Los Angeles Kings RFA.

Byfield, 21, was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft and finally had his breakout season in 2023-24, scoring 20 goals, 35 assists, and 55 points, smashing career-highs in all three categories. Byfield was still playing in the AHL for the Ontario Reign only a year ago, and, on the heels of his most recent campaign, the future looks increasingly bright.

Because the hulking 6-foot-5 center does not have arbitration rights, the Flyers and other NHL teams can attempt to offer sheet Byfield and part ways with draft capital, based on the agreed-upon salary, should the Kings choose not to match.

Evolving-Hockey currently gives Byfield a 13% chance of signing a two-year contract with a different team and a 9% chance of signing a seven-year contract; these are the two of the likeliest options for a contract term. Should Byfield sign for two years, Evolving-Hockey projects the 21-year-old to carry a $3.707 million cap hit. For a potential seven-year deal, that number jumps up to $6.211 million.

Should Byfield sign with a new team, the likeliest outcome is a six-year contract, which currently sits at 38%; Evolving-Hockey’s projected cap hit for this scenario is $6.047 million.

Hypothetically, if the Flyers did their research and came to the conclusion that Byfield is the No. 1 center of their future, a $6 million contract is a relatively inexpensive cost to pay to lock Byfield down until his age 28 season. Based on the 2024 offer sheet compensation, the Flyers would owe the the Kings first- and third-round picks if Byfield’s contract ranged between $4.59 million and $6.871 million.

Now, the Kings have $9.16 million remaining in cap space, but they’ll need to use nearly all of it to retain Byfield, winger Arthur Kaliyev, and defenseman Jordan Spence. It should be an absolute no-brainer for the Kings to re-sign Byfield and they should be frantically trying to do so, but the longer this drags out, the cloudier things look moving forward.

In theory, the Flyers cannot afford to offer sheet Byfield, given the fact that they are already over the NHL salary cap ceiling by $829,763. However, teams are allowed to exceed the salary cap ceiling by 10% in the offseason, so the Flyers would then be able to sign Byfield and proceed to move valuable, established players for longer-term assets.

By extension, Philadelphia would move forward with Byfield, Matvei Michkov, and Jamie Drysdale as their three biggest pieces moving forward.

Inaction is still a choice. If the Flyers make an offer sheet and manage to secure Byfield, they’re clear winners. If the Flyers fail and the Kings wisely match the offer sheet within the allotted seven days, at least they tried.

When you try to rebuild on the fly and bypass the grey, unenjoyable losing seasons, you have to get creative to find upper-echelon talents for your team. This is one such way the Flyers can try.